Neither The Conflicts In The Middle East Hold Back The Drop, Says US Department Of Energy; Forecast For 2025 Gets Worse.
If you thought that Oil was immune to such a sharp drop, especially with geopolitical conflicts erupting, brace yourself: the price plummeted more than 5% just today! That’s right, Brent Oil, which everyone thought would soar with the tensions between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah, simply lost its breath. Blame the United States? Yes! The Department of Energy (DoE) threw a bucket of cold water by outlining a troubling scenario for 2025, and not even the conflicts can hold the price steady.
Today, Brent fell more than 5%, trading at US$ 76.64 per barrel, while WTI follows the same trend and is now at US$ 73.73. And keep in mind that the week started with a price increase, driven by tensions in the Middle East threatening oil supply.
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Iran said that the Strait of Hormuz is open, but in practice only 1 non-Iranian oil tanker managed to cross in 24 hours — before the blockade, 100 ships passed per day.
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Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz completely open this Friday, and the price of oil plummets nearly 10% in a few hours — the largest drop since the beginning of the conflict.
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While the world was paying more for fuel, the 100 largest oil companies on the planet raked in an extra $23 billion in just 30 days of blockage in the Strait of Hormuz.
What Did The DoE Say Founded Oil?
The DoE of the United States released a bombshell report: it prevented the forecast for the average price of Brent Oil in 2024 from rising to US$ 81 per barrel, and the worst came for 2025, with an even sharper drop: the forecast, which was US$ 84.09, has now plummeted to US$ 78.00! This, of course, shook the market and helped drive oil prices down.
And why is this drop so detrimental? The Department points out that, despite current trends, the global scenario does not favor a significant increase in oil demand in the near future. The revision takes into account a weaker global growth, which is expected to impact demand for the commodity. Even with the conflicts, the future economic scenario weighed more heavily.
What To Expect For The Future Of The American Economy?
The report did not just bring more news about oil. For the United States, economic variations are even optimistic. The DoE revised upward the US GDP growth, which is now expected to reach 2.7% in 2024, up from a previous forecast of 2.6%. For 2025, GDP growth was also revised upward to 1.9% annually.
What Will Be The Global Impact?
With this new pessimistic projection for oil prices, how will the global market react?
What do you think will happen to oil prices? Will they continue to fall, or will we see a turnaround?

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