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Amid Tariffs And Trade Impasse, Chinese Traders Anticipate Purchases In South America While US Producers Complain Of Losing Ground. Official Data From Brazil And China Help Explain The Movement.
US producers claim that China has drastically reduced purchases of American soybeans and that Brazil has come to dominate shipments to the world’s top buyer. The backdrop is the impasse in trade negotiations and the return of tariffs that make US soybeans more expensive for Chinese importers. Traders and analysts report that nearly all Chinese demand at the beginning of the off-season was covered by South American shipments.
The numbers support the complaint. Between January and July 2025, China imported 42.26 million tons of soybeans from Brazil and 16.57 million from the US, according to Chinese customs data compiled by Reuters. In addition, purchases for October were already 95% covered at the beginning of September, “almost all” originating from South America.
On the Brazilian side, the impetus comes from abundant production. The Conab estimates the 2024/25 soybean harvest at 169.49 million tons, with projected exports exceeding 106 million tons. This volume is sufficient to keep Brazil as a competitive supplier in Asia’s buying calendar.
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Meanwhile, the Chinese tariff on US soybeans has eroded the price advantage of American products and pressured the crushing industry’s margins in China, which has already increased stocks after record imports mid-year.
Why China Left The US Counter At The Beginning Of The Season
Reports from traders indicate that there were no new crop reserves from the US sold to China until mid-September, a time when the American flow traditionally accelerates. Last year, 12 to 13 million tons from the US were already “on the books” for shipping between September and November. In 2025, coverage for October reached 95% with South American soybeans and 1 million tons for November, leaving little room for US origins.
The relative cost is decisive. Although American offers were US$ 0.80 to US$ 0.90 per bushel below Brazilian prices for September and October shipments, a 23% tariff imposed by China adds about US$ 2 per bushel to US products, eliminating the advantage.
This shift in purchases impacts prices in Chicago and is likely to provoke revisions in official projections. Analysts are already talking about a USDA cut in the 2025/26 export forecast, currently at 46.4 million tons, if the impasse is not resolved.
Brazil Filled The Vacuum With Large Harvest And Calendar On Its Side
The agricultural calendar favors Brazil and other neighbors in the first half of the year, while the US traditionally leads from September to January. In 2025, the robust harvest in Brazil extended South America’s competitiveness into the period when the US usually dominates. The Conab forecasts 169.49 million tons of soybeans in 2024/25 and exports above 106 million; there are also private reports indicating record total grain production in the country.
China’s import data reflect this supply: for the year-to-date up to July, Brazil provided more than double the American volume. For Chinese crushers, this movement ensures supply, even as margins have turned negative in hubs like Rizhao in recent weeks, following a series of aggressive purchases.
The cycle is dynamics. In March, for instance, the US accounted for 75% of monthly soybean arrivals in China due to precautionary purchases made at the end of 2024. Analysts, however, were already anticipating that Brazil would regain the lead with the entry of its harvest in the second quarter and record volumes throughout mid-year.
What US Producers Are Asking For And How Big The Loss Is
With no sales to China at the start of the season, the sector speaks of billions of dollars lost. Private estimates suggest a gap of 14 to 16 million tons in US exports if China keeps purchases away from the US until mid-November. Producer associations are pressuring the White House for an agreement that brings purchase commitments and eases tariffs.
The American Soybean Association (ASA) sent a letter to the government requesting priority for a deal with China and warning of “severe economic damages” if the absence of purchases continues. The argument is that China represented 54% of US soybean exports in 2023/24, totaling US$ 13.2 billion, and that the delay in pre-orders for the new crop is unusual.
Producers blame Brazil, claiming that the country has taken traditional markets with larger harvests, favorable exchange rates, and expanding logistics, making it hard to compete while tariffs raise the cost of American soybeans to importers. ASA bulletins also highlight that the combination of retaliatory tariffs, VAT, and MFN has raised the effective rate on US soybeans in 2025, worsening the demand shift.
And China? Competitiveness And Supply Security Speak Louder
From Beijing’s perspective, the priority is price and predictability. The USDA projects Chinese imports of 109 million tons in 2024/25, emphasizing that the country will remain highly dependent on external grain regardless of the supplier. The mix between the US and Brazil tends to vary according to price, tariffs, and geopolitical risk.
With high stocks after record purchases mid-year, Chinese crushers have been selective, even reducing pace when margins tighten. This explains why, even with cheaper American soybeans on paper, the additional tariff imposed by the Chinese weighed more heavily in the short-term decision.
On the horizon, the 2025/26 harvest in Brazil could keep the country competitive if the weather is favorable, a scenario suggested by market agents. As long as there is no agreement between Washington and Beijing, the flow tends to favor South America whenever the math makes sense at both origin and destination.
In the end, the question remains, is there “cannibalization” or just normal competition in a globalized market with tariffs and geopolitics on the board? Leave your comment and tell if China is just buying from whoever is more competitive or if the US is right to accuse of imbalance.
O desequilibrio é o alto custo da produção Norte Americana, mão de obra mais cara e a diminuição das desiqualdades tecnologicas, no mais o Brasil possui sol, agua e terras para competir em produtos agricolas, os EUA continuam a ser melhor em produtos de alto valor agregado, eu gostaria que o Brasil se inveredasse nessas áreas mais lucrativas.
Todo conhecimento de biotecnologia devem ser empregados na defesa e prevenção de qualquer ataque as nossas indústrias agrícolas.