Food inflation rose 302% in 20 years in Brazil, but the supermarket changed: purchasing power yielded 87% more mortadella and 31% less fruit, and ultra-processed foods took over the cart.

Written by Bruno Teles

Published on 21/06/2026 at 21:32

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In 20 years, food inflation reached 302% in Brazil, 62% above the general index. But Brazilians did not empty their carts, they changed the contents: purchasing power increased for bologna and soda and decreased for fruit and vegetables, pushing ultra-processed foods into the supermarket.

Between 2006 and 2026, the cost of the Brazilian’s meal almost quadrupled. Spending on food grew 302.6% during the period, according to a study by economist Valter Palmieri Junior reproduced by Agência Pública, while general inflation was 186.6%. Food inflation ran 62% above the official index, and the effect on the supermarket was so profound that it changed what goes into the cart, not just how much is spent.

The turnaround is here, and it defies intuition. Faced with the increase, Brazilians did not simply stop buying, they changed the contents of the cart in a way that punishes health. With the same money, the purchasing power for ultra-processed items increased, while that for fresh food plummeted. In other words, in today’s Brazil, it has become easier to fill the cart with bologna than with fruit, and this is not a matter of taste, it is a direct consequence of the price.

What entered and what left the cart

The numbers from the study, detailed by Agência Brasil, clearly show the exchange. Between 2006 and 2026, the purchasing power of Brazilians for bologna increased by 87.2% and for ham, 69%. For soda, it rose by 23.6%. In other words, with the same amount, you can take much more of these ultra-processed items home today than twenty years ago.

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Why the ultra-processed became “cheap”

The explanation is not by chance, but in the very structure of the industry. According to economist Valter Palmieri Junior, author of the study by ACT Health Promotion in partnership with Agência Bori, ultra-processed foods contain industrial additives that tend to have less price variation than fresh foods. While fruit depends on harvest, climate, and transportation, the shelf product is more stable.

There is also a scale trick. Few basic inputs, such as wheat, corn, sugar, and vegetable oil, are transformed into thousands of different products by adding chemical additives, which dilutes costs and keeps the final price down. That is why, in the supermarket bill, the industrialized package withstood food inflation better than a bunch of bananas.

There is also what researchers call invisible inflation. Instead of raising the price on the label, the industry reduces the quality or quantity inside the package, maintaining the price. The consumer thinks they paid the same, but got less, and this silent erosion also helps explain why purchasing power behaves so unequally between ultra-processed and fresh food.

It’s not just the shelf price: the field model

The root of the problem begins before the supermarket, in the logic of Brazilian agribusiness. Brazil has established itself as an agro-exporting power, and the numbers are impressive: sector exports jumped from 24.2 million tons in 2000 to 209.4 million in 2025, according to the study cited by Agência Pública. For comparison, rice and beans production totaled only 14 million tons in 2025.

The country increasingly plants for export, and not always to supply its own table. Agronomist José Baccarin, a professor at Unesp, and researcher Arilson Favareto, from the Josué de Castro Chair at USP, are among the specialists interviewed by Agência Pública who point out how land and market concentration pressures internal prices. In Mato Grosso alone, 83.7% of the agricultural area is in the hands of 10% of the owners.

This design explains a cruel paradox. The same Brazil that is the world’s breadbasket pays dearly to eat, because part of the production and pricing logic is geared towards export and oligopolies, not to make the plate cheaper for those who live here. Food inflation, seen this way, ceases to be just a supermarket problem and becomes a model problem.

The extent of the squeeze on the pocket

To feel the damage, just look at what is left of the money. The study shows that 100 reais from 2006 is equivalent to about 35 reais in general purchasing power in 2026, and only 24.70 reais when it comes to food, according to Agência Brasil. The purchasing power of food has shrunk to almost half of the already battered average purchasing power.

The international comparison highlights the distortion. While in Brazil food prices rose 62% above the general inflation in 20 years, in the United States, during the same period, food prices were only 1.5% above the general index, according to Agência Pública. Brazilians, proportionally, were much more penalized at the table.

The effect on behavior is direct. Research has already shown that 58% of the population has reduced the amount of food they buy, and families living on up to one and a half minimum wages spend about 25% of their budget just on food. Food inflation did not empty the supermarket cart, but filled it with ultra-processed foods and emptied it of nutrients.

The story of the last 20 years is not just about food that became 302% more expensive, it is about a cart that changed its appearance without the consumer noticing. Food inflation in Brazil made bologna and soda relatively cheap and fruit and vegetables relatively expensive, and the purchasing power followed the price, pushing ultra-processed foods into the family’s supermarket. The wallet dictated, and the plate obeyed.

And you, have you noticed that your cart has changed over the years, swapping fresh food for processed? Share in the comments what has been removed from your list.

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Food inflation rose 302% in 20 years in Brazil, but the supermarket changed: purchasing power yielded 87% more mortadella and 31% less fruit, and ultra-processed foods took over the cart.

In 20 years, food inflation reached 302% in Brazil, 62% above the general index. But Brazilians did not empty their carts, they changed the contents: purchasing power increased for bologna and soda and decreased for fruit and vegetables, pushing ultra-processed foods into the supermarket.

What entered and what left the cart

Why the ultra-processed became “cheap”

It’s not just the shelf price: the field model

The extent of the squeeze on the pocket

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Food inflation rose 302% in 20 years in Brazil, but the supermarket changed: purchasing power yielded 87% more mortadella and 31% less fruit, and ultra-processed foods took over the cart.

In 20 years, food inflation reached 302% in Brazil, 62% above the general index. But Brazilians did not empty their carts, they changed the contents: purchasing power increased for bologna and soda and decreased for fruit and vegetables, pushing ultra-processed foods into the supermarket.

What entered and what left the cart

Why the ultra-processed became “cheap”

It’s not just the shelf price: the field model

The extent of the squeeze on the pocket

In the cold desert of Ladakh, where it hardly rains, engineer Sonam Wangchuk created the ice stupa, a tower that freezes winter water and stores it for irrigating crops in the spring, a simple engineering feat that mimics nature.

Libya built over 4,000 kilometers of underground pipelines to bring water from the Sahara to coastal cities in a project that the government itself called the Eighth Wonder of the World.

Chinese woman planted trees for decades while sand buried part of her house, received $5,000 from an American in 1999, and helped transform the desert into a forest of 8 million trees in China.

Almost 6,000 residents live concentrated along a single street nearly 9 km long in the interior of Poland. Houses form a continuous row, and behind them, narrow agricultural strips emerge, creating one of the most unusual rural patterns in Europe.

Desert sand, previously discarded for being too smooth for concrete, becomes an ecological brick in the United Arab Emirates, dispensing with Portland cement, curing at room temperature, and attempting to transform dunes useless for construction into raw material for a new arid engineering.

Described by astronauts as one of the most unlikely natural phenomena on Earth, the Okavango Delta spreads over up to 15,000 square kilometers in the middle of the desert and transforms Botswana into a living labyrinth of channels, islands, and flooded areas.

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