Industry Presses for Urgent Rate Cut To Prevent Contraction and Boost Growth in 2025

Written by Caio Aviz

Published on 30/07/2025 at 20:07

Indústria busca alívio nos juros para retomar investimentos e produção

Uma pessoa reagiu a isso.

CNI Criticizes Maintenance of Interest Rates at 15% and Advocates Immediate Measures to Revert Adverse Scenario

The National Confederation of Industry (CNI) harshly criticized, on July 30, 2025, the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank.

The decision was to maintain the basic interest rate at 15% per year. For the entity, the excessively contractionary monetary policy undermines growth.

In addition, it increases the costs of the productive sector. This happens especially in a scenario already pressured by external and internal factors.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW

Increase in IOF and US Tariffs Creates Domino Effect

In addition to high Selic, the productive sector faces an increase in IOF on credit and exchange. This will add R$ 4.9 billion in annual costs to the industry.

This amount is estimated by CNI. As if that were not enough, tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian exports may lead to a significant drop in industrial production.

This impact generates large-scale layoffs. The combination of these factors exacerbates the economic environment.

According to Alban, an immediate change in posture from Copom is necessary. The country needs a monetary policy more favorable to growth.

It is essential to stimulate domestic production and consumption.

Brazil Tops the Real Interest Rate Ranking

According to the Central Bank, the real interest rate ended 2024 at 7% per year. However, in July 2025, it reached 10.1% per year.

This level positions Brazil as the second country in the world with the highest real interest rate, behind only Turkey.

This figure is 5.1 percentage points above the neutral rate. This indicates a strong economic restriction policy.

According to Taylor’s Rule, the Selic should be close to 10.59% per year. This number is 4.41 points below the current value.

This difference demonstrates a mismatch between inflation control and stimulation of productive activity.

More Expensive Credit Slows Consumption and Halts Investments

With high interest rates, credit becomes increasingly inaccessible. According to the Central Bank, the average rate charged from companies rose from 20.6% per year.

This data refers to September 2024. By June 2025, the average reached 24.3% per year.

For consumers, the average rate jumped from 52.3% to 58.3% during the same period. This scenario makes investments in modernization, innovation, and expansion unfeasible.

It also limits the working capital of companies. On the consumption side, high interest rates restrict access to higher value goods.

These products heavily depend on financing.

Production and Retail Slow Down with Less Access to Credit

The second quarter of 2025 already shows signs of an economic slowdown. According to IBGE, industrial production fell by 1.2% in April and May.

This drop was recorded compared to the previous quarter. In the same period, retail sales fell by 1.6%.

This movement reinforces the weakening of consumption. Additionally, the IBC-Br fell by 0.74% in May compared to April.

This indicator anticipates GDP performance. This set of data shows a loss of economic traction, caused by credit limitations.

Inflation Deceleration Expands Room for Cuts

Despite inflationary fears, recent data shows a deceleration in prices. According to IBGE, the IPCA was 1.31% in February 2025.

In March, it was at 0.56%. In April, it reached 0.43%. In May, it dropped to 0.26%. In June, it fell even further: 0.24%.

Food prices rose only 0.02% in May. In June, they fell by 0.43%. The accumulated high over 12 months dropped from 7.87% to 6.23%.

Another highlight is industrial goods. They increased by only 0.05% in May and June. The accumulated dropped from 4.09% to 3.72% between April and June.

This movement is due to the appreciation of the real. The Brazilian currency appreciated by 11.9% against the dollar in the first half of 2025.

Expectations Have Been Declining for Nine Weeks

In addition to current inflation, projections also show relief. Therefore, according to the Focus Report from the Central Bank, the IPCA for 2025 dropped to 5.1%.

Despite this, the decrease came after nine consecutive weeks of downward revisions. Thus, this movement reinforces the need to reduce the Selic.

As a result, the scenario allows for the beginning of a rate-cutting trajectory. Still, inflation control remains assured.

Industry Urges Urgent Action from the Central Bank

In the face of restricted credit and, at the same time, controlled inflation, therefore, the National Confederation of Industry reinforces the call for changes in monetary policy.

The Selic at 15% still hinders economic recovery and, consequently, threatens jobs. Moreover, it compromises investments and, thus, reduces the competitiveness of the national industry.

Ricardo Alban advocates that the Central Bank immediately initiates a cycle of cuts. Otherwise, the country may, therefore, plunge into prolonged recession, which would have severe impacts.

After all, why maintain such high interest rates if inflation is already easing?

0 Comentários

Mais recente

Mais antigos Mais votado

Feedbacks

Visualizar todos comentários

Industry Presses for Urgent Rate Cut To Prevent Contraction and Boost Growth in 2025

CNI Criticizes Maintenance of Interest Rates at 15% and Advocates Immediate Measures to Revert Adverse Scenario

Increase in IOF and US Tariffs Creates Domino Effect

Brazil Tops the Real Interest Rate Ranking

More Expensive Credit Slows Consumption and Halts Investments

Production and Retail Slow Down with Less Access to Credit

Inflation Deceleration Expands Room for Cuts

Expectations Have Been Declining for Nine Weeks

Industry Urges Urgent Action from the Central Bank

After all, why maintain such high interest rates if inflation is already easing?

Seen from space, an image taken by an astronaut shows an unlikely oasis in the Saudi Arabian desert, protected by a terrain that slows the advance of sand, surrounded by green circles, remnants of an extinct lake and nearly 10,000 years of preserved history.

While the U.S. still faces limitations in deep space, China is developing unprecedented technology with strategic satellites that maintain communication with the far side of the Moon and aims for dominance by 2030.

In Botswana, a salt flat of up to 16,000 km² that was once an African megalake spends months as an absolute white desert, but during the rainy season it transforms into a shallow sea that reappears from nowhere and can be seen from space in the middle of southern Africa.

The Blood Falls of Antarctica hide a living ecosystem trapped under the ice for over 2 million years, where microbes survive without light, without oxygen, and without ever having seen the Sun.

Bavarian archaeologists unearthed a medieval skeleton that had an articulated iron hand in place of its left arm, and the discovery reveals that doctors were already creating sophisticated prosthetics over 500 years ago.

For the first time, scientists have mapped the Etna magma system in almost real time and discovered where the volcano was storing large volumes of molten material before years of eruptions, revealing an underground reservoir that fills and reorganizes like a living organism beneath the mountain.

The CEO of Honor in Spain says that smartphones will change with AI, foldables, and even robot phones; the component crisis is making cheap models more expensive in 2026 and shifting the focus to premium.

Brazilian city becomes a global destination after attracting tourists who travel up to 10,000 km to visit a sanctuary with 11 giant saints up to 10 meters tall, open 24 hours and located along a highway in SP.

JBL Flip Essential 3 SE is launched with 30W of power (20W + 10W), Bluetooth 5.4, Auracast for multiple connections, IP67 water and dust resistance, up to 12 hours of battery life, and a price of approximately R$ 660 in China.

After ten days orbiting the Moon, science confirms that the astronauts of the Artemis II mission return with altered bodies.

Pernambuco paradise with 59% of preserved area advances with R$ 2 billion in e-methanol, aims for 900 tons/day, grows 38.6% and builds electrified terminal of 400 thousand TEUs.

Brazil may have railways back on the map, but it will need the government: a study reveals 7,412 km ready for reactivation, a cost of R$ 75 billion, 61 sections analyzed, and none viable without public funding.

Industry Presses for Urgent Rate Cut To Prevent Contraction and Boost Growth in 2025

CNI Criticizes Maintenance of Interest Rates at 15% and Advocates Immediate Measures to Revert Adverse Scenario

Increase in IOF and US Tariffs Creates Domino Effect

Brazil Tops the Real Interest Rate Ranking

More Expensive Credit Slows Consumption and Halts Investments

Production and Retail Slow Down with Less Access to Credit

Inflation Deceleration Expands Room for Cuts

Expectations Have Been Declining for Nine Weeks

Industry Urges Urgent Action from the Central Bank

After all, why maintain such high interest rates if inflation is already easing?

Seen from space, an image taken by an astronaut shows an unlikely oasis in the Saudi Arabian desert, protected by a terrain that slows the advance of sand, surrounded by green circles, remnants of an extinct lake and nearly 10,000 years of preserved history.

While the U.S. still faces limitations in deep space, China is developing unprecedented technology with strategic satellites that maintain communication with the far side of the Moon and aims for dominance by 2030.

In Botswana, a salt flat of up to 16,000 km² that was once an African megalake spends months as an absolute white desert, but during the rainy season it transforms into a shallow sea that reappears from nowhere and can be seen from space in the middle of southern Africa.

The Blood Falls of Antarctica hide a living ecosystem trapped under the ice for over 2 million years, where microbes survive without light, without oxygen, and without ever having seen the Sun.

Bavarian archaeologists unearthed a medieval skeleton that had an articulated iron hand in place of its left arm, and the discovery reveals that doctors were already creating sophisticated prosthetics over 500 years ago.

For the first time, scientists have mapped the Etna magma system in almost real time and discovered where the volcano was storing large volumes of molten material before years of eruptions, revealing an underground reservoir that fills and reorganizes like a living organism beneath the mountain.

The CEO of Honor in Spain says that smartphones will change with AI, foldables, and even robot phones; the component crisis is making cheap models more expensive in 2026 and shifting the focus to premium.

The World Bank issues urgent warning about jobs after the war in the Middle East and reveals an alarming scenario with rising unemployment, falling income, and the risk of a deep global economic crisis.

With millions of Brazilians in debt and interest rates soaring, the proposal to use FGTS to pay off debts reemerges and sparks immediate curiosity: does clearing one’s name this way really change life or just create a temporary sense of relief?

Brazil tightens the grip on billionaires with assets over US$ 100 million, targeting billionaires, business owners, and heirs who currently pay proportionally less tax than most of the population.

Petrobras puts R$ 5 billion on the table to bring to life a colossal factory that has been idle for almost 10 years to end dependence on international fertilizers.

The BYD case on the dirty list evolves rapidly, secretary is dismissed after contested inclusion, court suspends registration, and tension with tax auditors intensifies behind the scenes.

Brazilian city becomes a global destination after attracting tourists who travel up to 10,000 km to visit a sanctuary with 11 giant saints up to 10 meters tall, open 24 hours and located along a highway in SP.

JBL Flip Essential 3 SE is launched with 30W of power (20W + 10W), Bluetooth 5.4, Auracast for multiple connections, IP67 water and dust resistance, up to 12 hours of battery life, and a price of approximately R$ 660 in China.

After ten days orbiting the Moon, science confirms that the astronauts of the Artemis II mission return with altered bodies.

Pernambuco paradise with 59% of preserved area advances with R$ 2 billion in e-methanol, aims for 900 tons/day, grows 38.6% and builds electrified terminal of 400 thousand TEUs.

Brazil may have railways back on the map, but it will need the government: a study reveals 7,412 km ready for reactivation, a cost of R$ 75 billion, 61 sections analyzed, and none viable without public funding.