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June is expected to have strong cold, risk of frost, and poorly distributed rain in Brazil, with El Niño influence, temperature drop in various regions, and alert for wheat, sugarcane, coffee, corn, rice, and soybean crops
June begins with intense cold in the South, Southeast, and part of the Midwest, temperature drop in the North, and reduced rainfall in the Northeast. The forecast from Tempo OK, also published in Globo Rural (READ HERE), indicates an atypical month, influenced by the formation of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and the warming of the Atlantic.
El Niño is expected to alter the typical June pattern
June is usually a drier and colder month in much of Brazil. In areas like Minas Gerais, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Tocantins, southern Maranhão, southwestern Piauí, and western Bahia, rainfall typically remains below 20 millimeters.
This behavior, however, is not expected to repeat in 2026. Meteorologist Celso Luis de Oliveira Filho from Tempo OK states that the formation of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and the warming of the Atlantic should change the distribution of rain and cold.
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Winter officially begins on June 21 at 5:25 AM, Brasília time. Even before that, cold air masses are expected to cause a sharp drop in temperatures in different regions of the country.
NOAA indicated in a report presented on May 26 that the probability of El Niño consolidation rose to 82% between May and July. Despite the proximity of the phenomenon, the initial trend is of weak to moderate intensity in June.
First half will have more rain in the Southeast, Midwest, and Paraná
The forecast divides June into two moments. In the first half, the rains are expected to concentrate more in the Southeast, Midwest, and Paraná.
In the second half of the month, the condition changes course and mainly affects Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.
The simulations mentioned by Tempo OK indicate only 25 millimeters for most of São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, and southern Minas Gerais. Even so, in areas of the South, the accumulations can be much higher.
From the north of Rio Grande do Sul to the south and west of Paraná, the forecast indicates volumes of up to 150 millimeters.
This contrast shows an irregular month, with nearby regions facing very different conditions over a few weeks.
In the Southeast, rain is expected to exceed the climatological average in São Paulo, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, and southern Minas Gerais in the first days of June. Afterwards, the second half tends to be drier and colder.
Intense cold and frosts enter the radar after the 15th
The cold will be one of the main points of attention in June. According to the forecast, the scenario observed in May is expected to repeat, with low temperatures in the South, Southeast, Midwest, and also in the southern Amazon during the second half.
In the South, the risk increases after the 15th. Tempo OK points to the possibility of a sharp decline in temperatures and the formation of frosts, especially in areas of Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul.
In the Southeast, the possibility of frost also reaches São Paulo. In the Midwest, the risk is not ruled out in cities of Mato Grosso do Sul near the border with Paraná.
In the Serra da Mantiqueira, between São Paulo and Minas Gerais, and between Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, June normally already records minimums below 10°C.
This year, the overall behavior will be influenced by a climate pattern different from the usual.
North and Northeast will have less rain in important areas
In the North, the approach of El Niño is expected to weaken the Intertropical Convergence Zone, known as ITCZ. As a result, rain tends to decrease in Roraima, Amazonas, and Pará.
Rondônia and Acre are expected to experience cold episodes associated with the passage of polar air masses through the South, Southeast, and Midwest. In Amazonas, the forecast indicates the opposite behavior, with above-normal heat.
In the Northeast, the weakening of the ITCZ also reduces rain volumes in the coastal area between Bahia and Maranhão.
The hot weather is expected to continue, while the interior remains dry, a condition already characteristic of this time of year.
The reduction in rain requires attention in agricultural areas. In Paraíba, Pernambuco, and Alagoas, the decrease in volumes may increase the water deficit in sugarcane-producing regions.
Agriculture may feel the impacts of rain, cold, and low humidity
The forecast for June raises an alert for the field in all regions. Above-average rainfall may harm the harvest of sugarcane, coffee, and corn in Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, and the south of Minas Gerais.
The high soil moisture can also increase the risk of diseases in wheat crops in the South, Southeast, and Midwest.
At the same time, the sharp drop in temperatures and the risk of frost may affect wheat-producing areas in Paraná.
In São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul, sugarcane is also among the crops vulnerable to the cold. Meanwhile, in Roraima, low soil moisture is expected to hinder the development of rice, soybeans, and pastures.
Celso Filho states that the major effects of El Niño are expected to appear from September onwards. The indicated trend is for excessive rainfall in the South, the south of Mato Grosso do Sul, and the west and south of São Paulo.
On the other hand, the start of the wet period is expected to be delayed in Matopiba, Pará, and Amazonas. The meteorologist also points to much above-normal heat in the Pantanal, a condition that contributes to wildfires.
This article was prepared based on information from Tempo OK and NOAA, with data, numbers, and statements preserved as per the consulted material.
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