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Paraná and Santa Catarina are experiencing an economic and population boom, but they face a crisis water, pressure on services and infrastructure, raising warnings about a challenging future and the possibility of a serious crisis systemic.
The states of Santa Catarina and Paraná stand out for their strong economic and demographic growth. Driven by robust tourism and a significant flow of migrants, both foreigners and Brazilians, these states are boosting their economies, increasing revenue and jobs, as seen in February 2025. However, this progress masks worrying signs and a new crisis.
Population density and economic activity puts pressure on resources natural resources and existing infrastructure. A severe water crisis is already affecting Paraná, compromising agriculture, industry, domestic supply and the management of Sanepar, while accelerated urban expansion, such as in Maringá, and pressure on health and education are generating concern.
The Southern Magnet
Santa Catarina has consolidated its position as a tourist destination. In January 2025, it received 198.720 international tourists, an increase of 71% over January 2024 (116.209). This performance led the state, in February 2025, to have the second highest tourism growth in the country (13,7%). A survey by Fecomércio SC (summer 2025) showed a predominance of visitors aged 41 to 60 (54,4%) and an average spending per group of R$9.349 (+41%). Argentines accounted for 28,8% of the total (45,5% in Florianópolis), spending 35% more, driven by the favorable exchange rate. This dependence, however, signals vulnerability.
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Paraná also stands out. In 2024, it experienced a 13% growth in international tourist arrivals (over 894.000). February 2025 saw tourism from Paraná lead growth in Brazil (+6,5% over January; +9,9% over Feb/2024). In the first quarter of 2025, Paraná received over 426.000 international tourists (+18% vs. the previous year), with 42% from Argentina (179.000+) and 36% from Paraguay (154.000). Together, they represent 78% of visitors, demonstrating interdependence and sensitivity to instability.
In addition to tourism, states attract new residents
In Paraná, data from SISMIGRA (1st half of 2024) indicated 175.902 resident migrants; 196 municipalities are home to 195 nationalities. Between 2018 and 2022, it was the second state in terms of growth in the formal hiring of immigrants. In 2022, it led in absolute volume (8.379 people, 23,4% of the national total). Main formal nationalities in 2022: Venezuelans (14.507), Haitians (9.156), Paraguayans (6.475), and Argentines (1.038). Jorge Calado (IPARDES) notes immigrants from countries in crisis and from developed nations, reflecting investments. Santin Roveda (Secretary of Justice) states that the government offers support.
Santa Catarina led the growth in formal hiring of immigrants between 2018 and 2022 (balance of +29.639).
The internal migration of Brazilians to Paraná, according to the premise of the analysis, is motivated by opportunities, quality of life and security. A study by IPEA indicates that qualified professionals seek careers and quality of life, with Curitiba being a hub. Security is a plausible factor, but there is a lack of direct data as the main driver.
The fruits (and costs) of growth
The population influx and dynamic business environment generate economic dividends, but also portend a possible crisis management.
Paraná led the growth of economic activity in Brazil in February 2025, with an increase of 8,1% over the previous month (IBCR/Ipardes), double the national average (4,1%). In Santa Catarina, robust tourism growth and high visitor spending indicate significant economic stimulation.
In Paraná, 39.176 new formal jobs were created in February 2025 (CAGED), the third largest volume nationwide. In the first quarter of 2025, the state generated 60.757 new jobs. Santa Catarina and Paraná also stand out in the hiring of immigrant labor.
Authorities in Paraná attribute the performance to development policies. Ulisses Maia (Secretary of Planning of the State of Paraná) highlights the role of the private sector and actions such as red tape reduction, tax incentives and investments in infrastructure. Jorge Calado (IPARDES) relates the performance to the attraction of workers and investments. However, the official optimism contrasts with emerging challenges, such as crisis water, which are less emphasized.
Water crisis and emerging urban pressures
Paraná is facing a critical water crisis. The agricultural sector has suffered billion-dollar losses: R$1,5 billion in 2024 and more than R$360 million in early 2025 due to the drought. The impact is being felt in cities. Ponta Grossa has been facing supply problems since January 2025 (a reduction of 7-10%). Other cities such as Curitiba and Londrina are also experiencing cuts.
Sanepar attributes the crisis to heat and high consumption, reporting investments and future projections. As of May 2025, tariffs were readjusted by 3,7753%, raising the average basic tariff to R$6,83/m³, which worries the population. Critics such as Congressman Arilson Chiorato attribute the responsibility to the lack of investment and mismanagement by Sanepar and the government, not only to climate factors. The water crisis appears to be a combination of climate, governance and infrastructure deficiencies, aggravated by growth.
Pressures on the urban and social fabric
The urban expansion of Maringá in 2024 (with approval of more than 1.200 hectares, not the 3.400.000 ha mentioned in the premise) generated controversy. The Executive Branch partially vetoed the measure due to concerns about impacts on sewage treatment areas, environmental preservation, lack of mobility and sanitation studies, and the risk of increasing public service costs.
The massive influx of new residents is putting a strain on public services such as health and education, especially in smaller cities. The real estate market is heating up, with appreciation in cities in Santa Catarina (Balneário Camboriú, Itapema) and Paraná (Curitiba). Although the 2023 Gini Index is positive for both states (PR with 0,463; SC with 0,418, the lowest in the country), studies point to high racial and economic segregation in cities such as Curitiba and Florianópolis, indicating that the benefits of growth may not be distributed equitably, potentially leading to a social crisis.
Maringa receives an urban expansion, not even with four thousand inhabitants, the chaotic floods when it rains, the anachronistic infrastructure problem, a certain executive power has vetoed the cities, if it is for this public administration the city grows in population but the loss of quality disappears.
Londrina/PR