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The Israel-Iran war has reached its 60th day, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude oil has just hit its seventh consecutive rise, closing at $111.26 — Trump claims Iran asked the United States to open the oil route
Brent crude oil reached $111.26 per barrel on April 28, 2026, a 2.8% increase at closing. Investors marked the seventh consecutive session of gains for the June contract. On the same day, WTI hit $99.93, jumping 3.7% — flirting with the $100 mark for the first time since April 13, according to data from Brasil247.
The driving force behind the surge is geopolitical. For almost two months, the war between Israel and Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial navigation, blocking the exit of about 20% of the world’s oil. The result: tight supply and prices persisting at levels the market hasn’t seen since 2022.
To make matters worse, American President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social network that “Iran asked the United States to lift the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.” The statement confirmed the stalemate and injected even more tension into Brent crude oil, which gained more than 5% just in the week up to April 28.
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What is happening in the Strait of Hormuz and why it disrupts the market
The Strait of Hormuz is a maritime passage only 33 km wide between Iran to the north and the Arabian Peninsula to the south. Under normal conditions, about 20 million barrels of oil pass through daily — equivalent to one-fifth of global consumption.
About 60 days ago, navigation stopped. The immediate cause is the military escalation between Israel and Iran, with reciprocal attacks on energy infrastructure and explicit threats of total closure of the strait by the Iranian government in retaliation for Israeli operations.
In parallel, the United States maintains a naval blockade on Iranian ports, as reported by Bloomberg Línea, amplifying the paralysis. The Pentagon has reinforced the presence of the Fifth Fleet in the Persian Gulf, and intelligence air operations have increased in recent weeks.
Indeed, the combination of Israel attacks + Iran threatens + US blocks has created the worst possible scenario for the oil market. And Brent crude oil is being forced to price all of this at once.
The paradox of the United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC+
Under normal conditions, the exit of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC+ — announced on April 28 and effective May 1 — would drive prices down. This is because the country has idle capacity to double production from 3 to up to 6 million barrels daily, increasing global supply.
As recently reported by Click Petróleo e Gás, the Emirates are leaving the cartel after 59 years precisely because they want to produce more — and cannot within the rigid OPEC+ quotas.
However, amid the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, the expected downward effect disappeared. Geopolitical blockades weighed more than the prospect of more Saudi-Emirati supply, keeping Brent crude oil steady above $110.
As analyzed by Anh Pham, senior analyst at Lseg, “although prices have slightly decreased, this seems to be more of a correction of previous rises, while Brent remains at high levels, around $110 per barrel.”
Trump pressures, Iran resists — and the market prices a long process
The market received Trump’s comment about Iran asking for the opening of Hormuz with skepticism. This is because, while Washington makes public statements about the stalemate, the American naval blockade remains intact, and no peace agreement has surfaced.
As Bloomberg highlighted, Iran describes its own situation as a “state of collapse” of internal leadership, with rival factions vying for control. In other words, even if part of the Iranian government wants to end the crisis, there is no single chain of command to quickly unlock Hormuz.
Consequently, traders are pricing a peace process that could take weeks, perhaps months. This explains why, even with the slight correction of Brent crude oil on April 29 (-$0.01), prices remain anchored around $110 — the market is waiting for a structural solution, not small diplomatic steps.
The global impacts of Brent crude oil above $110
To understand the size of the shock, it is worth a historical comparison. Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Brent crude oil was trading between $70 and $80. Today, $110 represents an increase of approximately 50% over that average.
Every $10 increase in Brent raises, on average, $0.07 per liter the price of gasoline at Brazilian gas stations — not counting taxes and exchange rates. In terms of household budgets, a $30 increase per barrel can add up to R$ 0.40 per liter to retail prices, depending on Petrobras’ policy.
In parallel, importing countries face inflationary pressure. The United States, European Union, Japan, and China — the largest global consumers — see their energy costs soar, squeezing industrial margins and raising logistical costs. The inflation of goods and services tends to rise along.
On the other hand, net exporting countries like Brazil tend to gain extra revenue. As recently reported by Click Petróleo e Gás, Petrobras sees a direct increase in export revenues for every barrel sold above $100.
The impact on Petrobras and the Brazilian federal budget
The combination of high Brent + Brazilian production at a historic record creates a multiplier effect for Petrobras and the federal government’s coffers. Each barrel sold above $100 generates substantial additional revenue in royalties, special participation, and taxes.
According to preliminary calculations, if Brent crude oil remains at $110 throughout 2026, direct federal revenue from the sector could exceed R$ 250 billion — almost half of Brazil’s Bolsa Família budget in a single fiscal year.
In practice, the rise of Brent acts as a temporary opportunity revenue for the National Treasury. But there is a cost. As Brazil is also a large consumer of derived fuels, the pass-through to domestic prices pressures domestic inflation and creates political conflict in an election year.
The three possible scenarios for Brent crude oil by the end of 2026
Faced with the stalemate, analysts map three scenarios for the second half. First, there is the diplomatic hypothesis — the United States and Iran reach an agreement, Hormuz reopens, and Brent crude oil falls to the $85-95 per barrel range.
Second, there is the prolonged stalemate scenario — blockade maintained, but without additional military escalation. In this case, prices remain anchored around $105-115 throughout the year, with Petrobras and American exporters profiting high.
Finally, there is the worst-case scenario — regional military escalation, with direct attacks on Saudi or Emirati infrastructure. Then, Brent crude oil could soar to $130-150, with catastrophic effects on global inflation and world GDP growth.
- $111.26 — Brent closing on 04/28/2026 (seventh consecutive rise)
- $99.93 — WTI closing on the same day (3.7% rise)
- +5% — Brent gain in the week up to April 28
- 20% — share of the world’s oil that normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz
- 60 days — duration of the Israel-Iran war so far
- ~50% — accumulated rise of Brent over the pre-Ukraine average (2022)
What this means for the Brazilian consumer in the coming months
For the average Brazilian, the most visible effect will be at the gas station. With Brent crude oil above $110, Petrobras will face pressure from shareholders and the market to adjust gasoline and diesel prices to the international level.
In parallel, the Lula government may try to hold back adjustments through subsidies, stabilization funds, or temporary tax reductions like Cide. But, in an election year, any movement at the pump becomes a political issue — and fiscal balance is at risk.
In turn, the aviation sector will also feel it. Aviation kerosene follows Brent almost in real-time, and companies like Latam and Gol had already been signaling that they would pass costs on to passengers. In comparison, road freight transport — which drives much of the Brazilian economy — also tends to become more expensive in the coming months.
Caveats: the future depends on political, not economic variables
Despite recent numbers, it is worth remembering that the Brent crude oil scenario in 2026 depends much more on political decisions than market fundamentals. A sudden reopening of Hormuz could drop prices from $111 to $85 in a few days.
On the other hand, any additional military escalation — such as a direct Iranian attack on Saudi pipelines — could push the barrel to $140 or more. Quantitative models lose strength in this type of scenario.
Finally, the lingering question is uncomfortable. If South Atlantic oil will account for half of global growth in 2026, and Brent crude oil is above $110 because of a war that no one knows when will end, what happens if Hormuz reopens tomorrow? And if it never reopens?
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