YPF: Horacio Marín reveals that starting in 2028 the Argentine state will collect dividends from Vaca Muerta with US$ 25 billion, marking a new era of oil in the country

Written by Douglas Avila

Published on 19/05/2026 at 19:02

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The president of YPF, Horacio Marín, revealed that starting in 2028, the Argentine State will begin to collect dividends from the Vaca Muerta megaproject with $25 billion in accumulated investment, marking a new era of oil in the country.

According to a report by Infobae, the announcement was made at a press conference in Buenos Aires.

Therefore, Argentina projects to become a net oil exporter by 2028, with production exceeding 1 million barrels per day.

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Horacio Marín: the engineer leading YPF since December 2023

Horacio Marín took over the presidency of YPF in December 2023 after being appointed by President Javier Milei.

According to YPF, Marín is a chemical engineer with 30 years of experience in the oil industry.

Therefore, the executive previously worked at Tecpetrol, part of the Techint group, between 1994 and 2023.

Marín led the development of Fortín de Piedra, Argentina’s main unconventional gas block, at Tecpetrol.

Additionally, the executive is considered the main strategist of the Milei government for the national energy transition.

How Vaca Muerta surpassed the 400,000 barrels per day barrier

Vaca Muerta is the second-largest shale gas reserve in the world and the fourth-largest shale oil reserve.

According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), the reserve has 308 trillion cubic feet of gas and 27 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

Therefore, Vaca Muerta surpasses the American Permian Basin in hydrocarbon density.

The current operation involves 28 international companies, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Equinor.

Fracking operation in Vaca Muerta in the province of Neuquén — Vaca Muerta in Patagonia: 30,000 km² in the province of Neuquén with 28 international companies. Photo: YPF.

According to YPF, Vaca Muerta’s production grew 47% between 2024 and 2026.

The breakeven price of a barrel in Vaca Muerta is $32, much lower than the $75 of Brent oil in May 2026.

The Milei-Texas agreement that enabled exports to the USA

The Milei government signed an agreement with the Texas government in October 2025 to export Argentine oil to the United States.

According to YPF, the agreement allows shipments of 200,000 barrels per day to Texas refineries starting in 2027.

Therefore, Argentina enters the North American supply chain for the first time in history.

The transport takes place via the Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline, under construction by YPF with a $3.8 billion investment.

The pipeline is 700 km long and runs from the epicenter of Vaca Muerta to the port of Bahía Blanca, in the province of Buenos Aires.

Why the Argentine State will receive dividends starting in 2028

YPF is an Argentine public company with 51% of the shares controlled by the State.

According to the Argentine Comisión Nacional de Valores (CNV), the state-owned company has not paid dividends to the State since 2012.

Therefore, Marín announced that 2028 marks the return to profit distribution for the national government.

The Argentine State is expected to receive an estimated $4.2 billion in dividends in the first cycle of 2028.

Total Vaca Muerta investment: $25 billion (2024-2028)
Current production: 400,000 barrels per day (May 2026)
2028 goal: 1 million barrels per day
Breakeven price per barrel: $32 (vs Brent $75)
Operating companies: 28 international (Chevron, Exxon, Shell, Total, Equinor)
Expected 2028 dividends: $4.2 billion for the State

According to the Argentine Ministry of Economy, Vaca Muerta is expected to contribute 3.2% of the Argentine GDP by 2028.

For comparison with other major oil projects, see coverage of the Tengeh solar park and orbital data center.

Argentina could rival Brazil in oil production

Brazil’s oil production reached 4.1 million barrels per day in April 2026, according to the National Agency of Petroleum (ANP).

According to YPF, Argentina projects to reach 1 million barrels per day in 2028 and 2 million in 2032.

Therefore, the country could rival Petrobras in South American external markets starting in 2030.

Brazil exported 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025, mainly to China and the United States.

Argentina approaches Brazil in oil production by 2030 — Argentina projects to reach 1 million barrels/day in 2028 and 2 million in 2032: rivalry with Brazil. Photo: YPF.

Marín’s announcement confirms that Vaca Muerta is entering an operational maturation phase with fiscal returns to the Argentine State.

However, according to analysts from consultancy Wood Mackenzie, the goal of 1 million barrels per day in 2028 depends on Argentine political and exchange rate stability.

Nonetheless, according to Marín, YPF has multi-year contracts worth $18 billion already signed with international investors that shield Vaca Muerta’s schedule.

YPF: Horacio Marín reveals that starting in 2028 the Argentine state will collect dividends from Vaca Muerta with US$ 25 billion, marking a new era of oil in the country

Horacio Marín: the engineer leading YPF since December 2023

How Vaca Muerta surpassed the 400,000 barrels per day barrier

The Milei-Texas agreement that enabled exports to the USA

Why the Argentine State will receive dividends starting in 2028

Argentina could rival Brazil in oil production

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YPF: Horacio Marín reveals that starting in 2028 the Argentine state will collect dividends from Vaca Muerta with US$ 25 billion, marking a new era of oil in the country

Horacio Marín: the engineer leading YPF since December 2023

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Why the Argentine State will receive dividends starting in 2028

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