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Brazilian Coffee Loses Ground in the US After Tariffs and Seeks New Markets in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Industry Warns of Historic Loss of Competitiveness.
Coffee, a symbol of the Brazilian economy and responsible for billions of dollars in annual exports, entered the center of the trade war opened between Brazil and the United States in 2025. Although some tariff codes for the bean were included in the list of exceptions from the White House, the reality is that the 50% surcharge on various Brazilian products has profoundly altered the industry’s strategies. Traders report a drop in shipments to the US, while alternative destinations, such as the European Union, the Middle East, and Asia, show significant increases in demand.
The alert from industry associations is clear: without competitiveness in the American market, Brazil risks losing its historic position and creating space for competitors.
The Weight of Brazilian Coffee in Foreign Trade
Brazil is the largest coffee exporter in the world, holding over 30% of the global market. In 2024, more than 40 million sacks were exported, generating revenues exceeding US$ 8 billion.
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The United States has always been one of the main destinations, absorbing over 15% of that volume.
With the new tariff policy, part of those sales is already shifting to other markets. Even though green and roasted coffee received exemptions on some codes from the Annex II of the White House, bureaucracy and regulatory uncertainty led American buyers to reduce long-term contracts. For the sector, this means instability and decreased trust.
The Impossibility of Using Alternative Routes
Shortly after the announcement of the tariffs, speculations emerged about the possibility of triangulation: exporting Brazilian coffee to third countries and then re-exporting it to the US with a different declared origin. However, the industry quickly dismissed this hypothesis.
American authorities have already warned that they track the origin of the beans through certifications and phytosanitary standards, making it practically impossible to disguise the provenance.
Additionally, associations such as the Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) emphasized that any attempt of this kind would be risky, potentially generating even harsher sanctions. The message is clear: there are no feasible “shortcuts” to bypass the tariffs.
Alternative Destinations Gain Strength
While shipments to the US are declining, Brazilian coffee is finding new paths. Importers from the European Union have increased orders to meet internal demand, especially in Germany and Italy, major global roasters.
The Middle East is also emerging as a growing market, with countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates increasing their purchases.
In Asia, the highlight is China, which has been rapidly expanding its internal coffee consumption. Although it still represents a smaller share, the growth potential is enormous and is already being explored by Brazilian exporters. This diversification reduces dependency on the US but requires logistical adjustments and different commercial strategies.
The Risk of Loss of Competitiveness
The industry’s main fear is that the partial exit of Brazilian coffee from the American market will create space for competitors. Countries like Colombia, Vietnam, and Honduras could occupy this share, strengthening their commercial relationships with US roasters.
Once established, these contracts are difficult to reverse, which could represent a structural loss of market for Brazil.
Moreover, even the shipments that continue to the US face additional costs related to compliance, documentation, and currency risk. This increases operational costs and reduces the profit margin for exporters.
Impacts on the Producer and Internal Chain
At the farm level, producers are already feeling the effects of uncertainty. With reduced predictability of external sales and pressured prices, many are holding back investments in crops or delaying expansion plans.
Cooperatives report that part of the production is being redirected to smaller and more fragmented contracts, which increases the cost of intermediation.
The national roasting industry is also concerned: without the American market as an escape valve, part of the production may become trapped, affecting domestic prices and pressuring margins.
Government and Sector Try to React
The Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Agriculture have been seeking diplomatic and commercial solutions. One of the strategies is to accelerate negotiations with China and Arab countries, offering logistical convenience and rapid certifications.
Another front is the diversification of products, with greater focus on specialty coffees, which have higher margins and lower dependency on large volumes.
The sector is also pressuring the Brazilian government to provide emergency credit lines and support programs for exports, to compensate for temporary losses and prevent competitors from consolidating positions in the US.
A Turning Point in the International Coffee Trade
This episode exposes how global trade has ceased to be merely a matter of supply and demand and has become a tool of geopolitics.
Coffee, a product that built the economic history of Brazil, is now becoming a piece in a larger dispute between Washington and Brasília.
If the country fails to secure its position in the American market, it may witness a redrawing of the global coffee geography, with lasting losses for producers, traders, and Brazil’s image as a reliable supplier.
Pelo amor de Deus…que matéria sem fundamento! Quais as “trends” e “associações” que atestam o que a matéria afirma, quais os nomes? Onde estão os números e os comparativos, com indicação dos períodos, sobre a queda nas exportações? Fazer matéria com verborragia e sem dados?? Ah… Me poupem! Ridículo… E que bom que estamos diversificando as vendas para outros mercados. O mundo não se resume a norte-americanos, os quais, na grande maioria, provavelmente acham que a capital do Brasil é Buenos Aires. Queremos distância dessa nação que não deu certo, preconceituosa e retrógrada! Eu JAMAIS gastarei meu dinheiro de férias nesse país tosco e atrasado.😂
fico triste pelos trabalhadores que possivelmente vão perder empregos, mas para os “senhores do café” acho é pouco, é o q acontece quando se defende um **** q só pensa no próprio umbigo (n q eles tmb n sejam do mesmo jeito)…
E daí se eles não querem o café brasileiro, tem quem queira.
A culpa é do governo deles por aplicar tarifas e deixar o produto mais caro para os moradores de lá.
Brasil manda em mais de 30% do café global… Só o EUA consome 15% desses mais de 30%. Aí vc vem e fala e daí? Na teoria vc tá perdendo metade do lucro, na prática é pior, vc perde valor financeiro e é obrigado a fazer acordos ruins pelo melhor café do planeta. Já se fala em empréstimos e concessões. Vamos lá inflamar ainda mais a economia e ficar mais um pouco nas mãos dos chineses…
Maycon seu aninal. Você tem noção de que esses “30%” corresponde ao volume de venda mundial? O que o Brasil realmente vende seria 100%, o que os EUA compram seria 15% dessa fatia. Ou seja, a cada 100 vendidos 15 vão para os EUA.