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While Global Demand for Energy, Driven by Artificial Intelligence, Explodes, Brazilian Oil Production Faces an Alarming Decline That Could Change the Country’s Status in the Global Scenario.
A warning lights up on Brazil’s energy dashboard. Shell’s projections indicate a worrying future: without urgent exploration of new oil reserves, the country risks becoming a net importer by 2035. The president of the multinational in the country, Cristiano Pinto da Costa, reveals the gravity of the situation, pointing to a drastic drop in drilling and the depletion of current sources.
Santos Basins and Fields Show Signs of Exhaustion
The energy security of Brazil, guaranteed by oil production, is at stake. The president of Shell in Brazil expresses his concern about an imminent scenario. “It’s a situation that worries me,” states Cristiano Pinto da Costa.
The central reason is that the Santos and Campos basins, responsible for the majority of national production, are already showing clear signs of exhaustion. The lack of new exploratory fronts threatens Brazil’s ability to remain self-sufficient.
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Brazil could become a global oil powerhouse with reserves jumping from 17 billion to 23.5 billion barrels, investments of US$ 30 billion per year, and exploration in the Equatorial Margin that could extend Brazilian production until 2042.
The Drastic Decline in Oil Well Drilling in Brazil
Data confirms the urgency of the warning. According to Costa, Brazil, which in the 2000s drilled over 150 wells per year, has seen that number plummet. In 2024, only six new drillings were recorded.
“If we don’t reverse this decline, the trend is depletion,” the executive states. The solution, he says, is clear: open new frontiers for exploration and hold one to two oil auctions by ANP per year.
The Inevitable Increase in Global Oil Consumption
Contrary to the narrative about the end of fossil fuels, the more realistic outlook is for growth in oil consumption. The president of Shell asserts that global demand for oil and gas will not decrease in the near future.
Population, Consumption, and Artificial Intelligence
Three main forces drive this increasing demand for oil and other energy sources. First, the planet will have 2 billion more people by 2050. Second, the gradual improvement of living standards in the Southern Hemisphere, where energy consumption is still one third of the North’s, will lead to higher energy use.
Finally, a new and voracious consumer is emerging on the horizon: the demand from artificial intelligence.
From Renewable to Any Available Source
The race among tech giants for energy is already a reality. Costa confirms that Shell, one of the largest oil and gas companies in the world, is frequently sought after by “big techs” like Meta, OpenAI, and Alphabet. However, the nature of the conversation has changed radically.
The search, which was previously for renewable energy and then for secure energy, is now much more direct. The executive’s quote summarizes the new paradigm: “Today, they just ask if we have energy. Any type.” This drastic change highlights the immense pressure on supply, placing traditional sources like oil back at the center of demand and reaffirming its role as a key piece to meet this urgent energy need.
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