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With Peak of R$ 6 During the Day, the Dollar Ends Negotiations at R$ 5.98, Renewing Historical High. Announced Fiscal Measures Pressure Exchange Rate and Elevate Economic Uncertainties
The commercial dollar ended this Thursday with a strong increase of 1.30%, reaching R$ 5.9891, the highest closing value since the creation of the real in 1994. During the day, the currency even exceeded the R$ 6 mark, hitting R$ 6.0029 at 1:12 PM, reflecting the negative market reaction to the fiscal measures announced by the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad.
This value surpasses the historical intraday high, recorded during the peak of the pandemic in May 2020, when the dollar reached R$ 5.97. On Wednesday, the currency had already closed with a significant increase, quoted at R$ 5.91, due to expectations about the economic package. However, the detailed information raised pessimism in the market, which already anticipated challenges in containing public spending.
Fiscal Package Faces Criticism Over Impact and Clarity
The package of measures announced by the government seeks a fiscal adjustment with an estimated savings of R$ 70 billion over the next two years, reaching R$ 400 billion by 2030. Among the proposals are the introduction of a minimum retirement age for military personnel and changes to the criteria for adjusting the minimum wage. Nevertheless, the inclusion of the income tax exemption for incomes up to R$ 5,000 generated controversy.
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Analysts evaluate that the exemption proposal undermines the expected fiscal impact of the other measures. Felipe Salto, chief economist at Warren Investimentos, pointed out that the change in income tax could lead to a significant revenue loss, undermining the goal of stabilizing the debt/GDP ratio. In a report, he highlighted that the lack of clarity on how to compensate for the exemption weakens the credibility of the adjustment.
Charo Alves, from Valor Investimentos, reinforced this concern: “The expectation was for a package of consistent cuts, but the announcement brought new expenses. This creates uncertainty, especially regarding the sources of funds to compensate for the exemptions.” According to him, the lack of detail increased pressure on the exchange rate.
Brazilian Currency Leads Global Depreciation
In the international market, the real performed the worst among major currencies against the dollar. While the Japanese yen fell 0.28% and the euro lost 0.09%, some emerging currencies recorded appreciation. The Mexican peso rose 0.72%, and the South African rand increased by 0.43%, highlighting the fragility of the real against other global currencies.
Experts attribute this depreciation to the domestic environment of fiscal uncertainty, combined with the international context, where the dollar remains strong amid rising yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. This scenario reinforces the perception of risk regarding the Brazilian economy, further pressuring the exchange rate.
Future Interest Rates Project Higher Selic
The futures interest rate curve also reflected market distrust. The interbank deposit rates (DI), a benchmark for negotiated contracts, recorded an increase throughout the day. For January 2026, the rate rose to 13.725%, compared to 13.5% in the previous closing. The market now projects that the Selic rate could reach 14.25% by November 2025.
Fernando Haddad, in a press conference, tried to ease the pessimism, stating that the market needs to revise its forecasts and abandon incorrect projections about economic growth and the primary result. According to the minister, the fiscal adjustment is underway and will not be resolved immediately. “There is no silver bullet. The market needs to understand the effort being made,” he declared.
Campaign Promises Create Conflicts Within the Government
The inclusion of the income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000 was seen as a political victory for President Lula, who fulfilled one of his campaign promises. However, analysts believe this decision weakened the Minister of Finance, who advocated for a more robust adjustment without compromising revenue.
This internal conflict highlighted the government’s difficulty in balancing political and economic priorities. Although the exemption is popular, it adds complexity to the challenge of meeting the fiscal target. For Haddad, the fiscal package is just the beginning of an ongoing effort, but political noise may hinder the full implementation of the measures.
Impact of Measures Should Be Monitored in the Coming Months
The fiscal package detailed this Thursday included measures to contain spending and increase revenue, aiming to improve economic indicators in the coming years. The estimated savings of R$ 70 billion by 2025 is significant, but it depends on the effective execution of the proposals. By 2030, the government projects savings of R$ 400 billion, but analysts warn that this may be insufficient to stabilize public debt if new expenditures are added.
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