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São Paulo Government Bets on New Regional Trains and Prepares Direct Connection Between São Paulo and Santos, While Consolidating Billion-Dollar Concession with Chinese Group and Plans to Expand the State’s Railway Network.
The state government has once again bet on railways as a solution to connect the capital with the interior and the coast.
Today, the state portfolio includes 11 railway projects, four of which are starting from the capital and in different phases of development.
Among them, the most advanced is the Intercity Train (TIC) North Axis, which will connect São Paulo to Campinas under private concession.
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The other axes — South (São Paulo–Santos), West (São Paulo–Sorocaba), and East (São Paulo–São José dos Campos) — are progressing through study and regulatory preparation stages.
What Is Already Contracted: São Paulo–Campinas
On June 3, 2024, the State signed the contract for the TIC North Axis with the consortium C2 Mobilidade sobre Trilhos, controlled by the Brazilian Comporte and the Chinese CRRC.
The agreement resulted from the auction held in February of that year and provides for the implementation of an express service between Campinas and the capital, with integration into the metropolitan system.
The official investment estimate is R$ 13.48 billion, and the contract has a 30-year deadline.
According to the regulatory schedule, the concession will begin its validity in December 2025.
In addition to the express train, the package includes a stopping service (intermunicipal) and related interventions, under the responsibility of the same concessionaire.
State documents present goals for job creation and regional service, with benefits distributed across municipalities in the Anhanguera–Jundiaí–Campinas axis.
These parameters are included in the official regulatory and transparency materials published after the signing.
South Axis: Connection with Santos Still Under Study
While the North is already contracted, the South Axis — focused on the São Paulo–Santos connection — remains in the feasibility study phase.
The preliminary design considers utilizing portions of the existing network, where technically possible, and defining the best descent from the Serra do Mar to reach the Baixada Santista.
The analyzed scenarios project travel time of around 90 minutes, distance between 80 and 130 kilometers, and estimated investment of up to R$ 15 billion.
The current stage includes baseline analyses and preparation for future public consultations and hearings, where route, interferences, and engineering solutions will be discussed.
The official agenda of the “SP nos Trilhos” program indicates that the definition of the route and technologies for the mountainous section still depend on comparative studies and compatibility with freight operations in the region.
Only after this phase is it possible to consolidate the notice, estimate the timetable for works, and detail partnerships with infrastructure operators already present in the corridor.
West and East: Timelines and Next Steps
The West Axis, which aims to connect São Paulo to Sorocaba, is in the process of drafting the notice.
The Partnerships and Investments Secretariat indicates publication by the end of 2025, with the bidding to follow.
Recent industry reports suggest that the auction might take place in 2026, depending on the technical and regulatory consolidation of the project.
In any scenario, the preparatory documentation is already circulating among state agencies and will undergo public hearings before the bidding.
In the East Axis, aimed at São José dos Campos, the government is working on the study phase.
The evaluated premises include travel in about 75 minutes, distance also between 80 and 130 kilometers, and service to hubs in the Paraíba Valley.
This axis is pointed out by technicians as a candidate for highest average speed among the four capital projects, a topic that will still be calibrated in engineering and demand studies.
Seven Projects in the State PPI Queue
In addition to the four axes starting from the capital, another seven projects are listed in the State’s Investment Partnerships portfolio.
They are in the first qualification stage or in early phases of development and aim to make use of existing or underutilized railway sections, reducing costs and timelines whenever the current infrastructure allows for safety and performance levels compatible with passenger transport.
The typical procedural sequence involves qualification in the PPI, baseline studies, public hearings, notice publication, auction, and contract signing.
In parallel, the state government maintains rail mobility initiatives in the Metropolitan Region, with concessions and PPPs aimed at modernizing and expanding urban lines.
This overlap of projects requires coordination between regulatory agencies, concessionaires, and freight operators to align maintenance windows, time slots, and technical specifications along corridors already contested by trains of different profiles.
What Changes for the Passenger
If the timelines progress as planned, the proposed network is expected to alleviate road transport on the state’s major axes.
In the case of Baixada Santista, a direct railway connection to the capital would create an alternative to the Anchieta-Imigrantes System during peak hours and holiday seasons.
The impact would be noticeable on travel predictability and on logistical costs for medium-distance trips.
To the north, the TIC São Paulo–Campinas is expected to redistribute commuting flows that currently rely on buses and cars on the Anhanguera and Bandeirantes highways.
Although the term “super train” has gained traction in public debate, official documents make it clear that each axis will have its own operational parameters, compatible with route, topography, and coexistence with freight.
The South Axis is likely to operate at a lower average speed than the East, for example, given the restrictions of the Serra do Mar and the need for integration with the existing network.
Final definitions — rolling stock, signaling, capacity, and operation model — will come with the completion of studies and market consultation.
International Partnership and Financing
The participation of CRRC, the largest manufacturer of railway material in China, in partnership with Comporte, provides financial and technological robustness to the North TIC, currently the most consolidated project of the program.
The adopted format combines private investment with performance targets and public payments conditioned on delivery, following the standard for public-private partnerships used in mobility.
The same logic should guide the future notices for the South, West, and East axes, adjusted to the needs of each corridor.
Challenges Ahead
The expansion of the São Paulo railway depends on three critical factors.
First, design engineering, especially in the descent of the mountain towards Santos, to ensure safety and reliability without compromising freight operations.
Second, economic-financial modeling, which needs to balance fare, demand, and investments to make each axis financially viable.
Third, institutional coordination, to ensure that licensing, expropriations, and interfaces with other concessions proceed at the appropriate pace.
The regulatory pathway provides for public hearings and auction only after technical maturation, which gives the market predictability and allows timely course corrections.
With the North TIC contracted and the other three axes in preparation, the question that emerges is simple and direct: when will passengers see the first train to the coast come to life and actually run on the tracks between the capital and Santos?
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