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Beef Prices Surge in Brazil: Understand Why There’s No Forecast for a Decrease and How It Affects Your Wallet
Brazilians will need to prepare their wallets: beef prices continue on the rise and there’s no forecast for relief in the short term.
Even after a slight decline recorded in August, the factors pushing the market indicate that the increase should continue, both due to the rise in exports and high domestic consumption.
According to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), there was a reduction of 0.43% in the average price of beef in August.
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However, this decline was not sufficient to impact the final consumer, who is already facing a cumulative inflation of 22.17% on beef cuts.
Why Beef Will Continue to Rise
IBGE points out three main reasons for the price escalation. The first is the accelerated pace of exports, which removes a large part of the production from the domestic market.
The second is consumption within Brazil, which remains high even with elevated prices.
Finally, there is a trend of reduction in the number of cattle slaughtered by 2027, which should further pressure the supply.
This combination creates a challenging scenario for consumers, who are already facing difficulties in keeping beef on the weekly menu.
Industry experts say that without significant changes in the pace of exports or the volume of slaughter, prices will continue to rise over the next few years.
Inflation by Beef Cut
Some cuts have seen increases above average and have become even less accessible. Among the highlights are:
- Chuck: 29.1%
- Rump: 23.5%
- Ribeye: 21.4%
- Picanha: 12.1%
- Liver: 15.6%
- Hump: 17.2%
- Tenderloin: 19.1%
- Round: 19.8%
- Sirloin: 21.4%
- Chuck Tender: 21.7%
- Ribs: 23.6%
- Common Round: 23%
- Shank: 24.6%
- Shoulder: 24%
- Chuck Eye: 22.1%
- Brisket: 27.4%
In practice, popular cuts such as chuck, brisket, and shank are among those that have risen the most, directly affecting middle-class tables and low-income families.
Meanwhile, premium cuts like picanha and tenderloin have also experienced adjustments, but to a lesser extent.
Impact on Family Consumption
With beef becoming increasingly expensive, many consumers have sought alternatives, such as chicken, eggs, and pork, to balance their budgets.
Still, beef remains one of the most sought-after items in Brazilian homes, especially during festive dates and weekends.
The scenario shows that even with minor monthly variations, the upward trend is not expected to reverse anytime soon.
For specialists, beef will continue to be one of the main drivers of cost of living pressures for Brazilians until at least the end of the decade.
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