Lubnor Refinery Sold by Petrobras for More Than Half Its Value, According to Ineep

Written by Roberta Souza

Published on 27/05/2022 at 18:43

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The Price At Which The Lubricants And Derived Refinery Of The Northeast, Lubnor, Was Sold By Petrobras Does Not Correspond To Its Real Value

The value reported by Petrobras for the sale of the Lubnor refinery in Ceará represents just over half, about 55%, of the refinery’s real price, according to calculations made by analysts from Ineep (Institute of Strategic Studies of Oil, Natural Gas, and Biofuels). According to the study conducted, the Lubnor refinery is worth at least US$ 62 million, whereas the price negotiated by Petrobras is US$ 34 million.

Petrobras – which has a public tender open for hiring maintenance services – made public, late Wednesday afternoon, 25, that it signed a contract with Grepar Participações for the sale of the Lubnor refinery. Grepar has contributions from Grecor Investimentos em Participações Societárias Ltda., Greca Distribuidora de Asfaltos Ltda., and Holding GV Participações S.A.

The study conducted by Ineep shows two baseline scenarios and declares a currency floor of about US$ 5.08 and a maximum of US$ 5.70, a range chosen due to the high currency volatility of the Brazilian economy. Based on the two scenarios outlined by Ineep and the dollar prices, the research concludes that the Lubnor refinery can have a price between US$ 62 million and US$ 70 million.

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Calculation Made To Forecast The Value Of The Lubnor Refinery From Petrobras Used The DCF Method

The basis of the calculation was made using the DCF method, Discounted Cash Flow, which is based on the value inserted in the cash flows, planning them for the future. From the result, the rate reflecting the business risk, capital expenses (investment in fixed capital), and additional working capital needs are reduced, according to Ineep in a statement.

Considering that Petrobras does not provide exclusive information about each refinery, to estimate the profits and expenses of the Lubnor refinery, Ineep reported that it collected data that was made available by Petrobras.

Furthermore, for the calculations made for the Lubnor refinery from Petrobras, it was considered that future profit planning could vary based on the arguments adopted for the value of oil produced by Petrobras, however, according to Ineep, “even taking into account the variations,” no scenario was observed in which the value of the asset was equal to the price negotiated for Lubnor by Petrobras.

The Lubnor refinery has the capacity to process about 8,000 barrels daily and is one of the leaders in the country in asphalt production, besides being the only representative of the country capable of producing naphthenic lubricants.

About Lubnor

The Petrobras Lubnor refinery was inaugurated in 1966 and occupies a total area of 218,000 square meters, producing approximately 235,000 tons of asphalt annually and 73,000 cubic meters of naphthenic lubricants per year. In addition to being a producer of asphalt, Lubnor also distributes asphalt to nine states in the North and Northeast regions. All the oil used by Lubnor is ultra-heavy type, with 85% coming from Espírito Santo and the other 15% from Ceará. Of the total oil produced, 62% of its volume is directed to asphalt production, supplying all the states in the Northeast, and about 16% is invested in the production of naphthenic lubricants.
The refinery uses two port structures, the Port of Mucuripe located in Fortaleza, and the Pecém Terminal in the region of São Gonçalo do Amarante.

The refinery has a total area of 0.4 km² and has three more units: Lubricants Unit – ULUB, Natural Gas Processing Unit – UPGN, and Vacuum Unit – UVAC, with a total capacity of 8,000 barrels daily.

Lubnor Refinery Sold by Petrobras for More Than Half Its Value, According to Ineep

The Price At Which The Lubricants And Derived Refinery Of The Northeast, Lubnor, Was Sold By Petrobras Does Not Correspond To Its Real Value

Calculation Made To Forecast The Value Of The Lubnor Refinery From Petrobras Used The DCF Method

About Lubnor

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Lubnor Refinery Sold by Petrobras for More Than Half Its Value, According to Ineep

The Price At Which The Lubricants And Derived Refinery Of The Northeast, Lubnor, Was Sold By Petrobras Does Not Correspond To Its Real Value

Calculation Made To Forecast The Value Of The Lubnor Refinery From Petrobras Used The DCF Method

About Lubnor

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