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China bet on building subway before the city and transformed stations once surrounded by vegetation into engines of urbanization, real estate appreciation, and economic expansion, although the model has also exposed billion-dollar risks of indebtedness and underutilized works for years
The China decided to follow an unusual path in urban planning: to build transportation infrastructure even before a consolidated city existed around it. Instead of waiting for population growth to then lay tracks, the country began to use subway stations and lines as a tool to drive urbanization, often with 10, 15, and even 20 years in advance.
The case that best summarizes this logic is that of the Caojiawan station, inaugurated in October 2015 near Chongqing. For years, it became a symbol of waste for appearing to be isolated in the middle of vegetation, with exits surrounded by weeds and only one in operation. Today, however, the area around it has transformed into a new urban hub, surrounded by buildings, services, and a population of 816 thousand residents, reinforcing the Chinese view that the subway can come before the city.
What happened to Caojiawan and why the station became a symbol of this model
The Caojiawan station was designed to connect the rural suburb of Caijiagang to the center of Chongqing. When it went into operation, the reality around it was very different from the image expected of a modern subway station. The location seemed empty, isolated, and far from any significant urban density.
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This appearance became the target of videos and criticism. The scene of a new station surrounded by weeds seemed to summarize a planning error. But time changed the reading. Five years later from that image of isolation, the area began to concentrate urban expansion, real estate appreciation, and complementary infrastructure, proving that the bet was for the long term and not for immediate returns.
The numbers that explain why the strategy garnered so much attention
The main number behind this model is the timeframe. The basis shows that China works with projects designed to appreciate in 15 or 20 years, not in three or five. This is the essence of the forward planning that led the country to build stations seemingly “in the middle of nowhere”.
In the case of Caojiawan, the most visible impact appears in the population of the surrounding area, which today houses 816 thousand residents. Additionally, the station has become part of a district considered strategic for bringing together the Chongqing High-Tech Zone and the China Pilot Free Trade Zone, which reinforced the role of the subway as a catalyst for new investments.
How China uses the subway to drive urbanization
In the logic adopted by the country, infrastructure does not follow urban growth. It tries to provoke it. The presence of a station acts as a signal for builders, companies, and investors that the area will have connectivity, mobility, and strategic value in the future.
That is exactly what happened in Caojiawan. The arrival of the light rail line 6 attracted developers to buy land and build housing. After that came shopping malls, parks, hospitals, schools, and other transportation structures. The city did not come first. It was drawn closer to the subway.
Why this model seems strange outside of China
In much of the West, the logic is usually the opposite. First the population grows, then transportation is expanded. Therefore, when stations are built in still underdeveloped areas, the initial impression is one of waste or miscalculation.
China reverses this order and treats the subway as a value and occupancy inducer. This model may seem exaggerated in the short term, as it leaves expensive assets underutilized for years. But the proposal is precisely to look at longer horizons, betting that the infrastructure built today will attract the city of tomorrow.
What a study from Wuhan showed about the effect of the subway on land value
The basis cites a study from Wuhan which states that the mere presence of a subway station nearby increases the value of commercial properties within a radius of 400 meters, even when the area is still underdeveloped at the time of construction.
This data helps explain the Chinese reasoning. The station is not seen merely as a mobility project. It also serves as a tool for territorial valuation and economic reorganization. This means that the subway stops being just transportation and starts acting as a piece of urban transformation.
What changed in the rules to accelerate projects of this type
In 2017, according to the source, the National Development and Reform Commission relaxed the requirements for local governments to present subway projects. One of the central points was the reduction of the minimum required population, from 3 million to 1.5 million.
This change opened the door for smaller cities to start seeking projects of this scale. In practice, the central government expanded the reach of this model of proactive planning and gave more momentum to the idea of using the subway as a driver of socioeconomic development.
Why the strategy also generates fear of waste and debt
The success of some cases, like Caojiawan, does not eliminate the risk of the model. Building so far in advance means locking up large volumes of resources in assets that may remain underutilized for years, with insufficient operational return to justify the investment in the short term.
The source itself shows that this risk is real. Building one kilometer of subway line costs between 500 million and 1.3 billion yuan, a lower amount than in several European cities, but still huge for local administrations. As subway systems are rarely profitable, the weight of debt can grow rapidly.
What the example of Beijing shows about the cost of maintaining these systems
Even the Beijing subway, the busiest in China, recorded a loss of nearly US$ 560 million in 2013. Part of this loss was associated with the fact that fares had been reduced to the point of not covering construction costs.
This example shows that the problem is not only in smaller cities. Even established networks can face strong financial pressure. This helps to understand why the Chinese model is admired as an urban strategy but also questioned as fiscal and economic return policy.
Where the bet did not work out and became a problem
Not all stations and lines had the fate of Caojiawan. The source cites the case of Baotou, in Inner Mongolia, where two subway projects were stalled for years after an investment of US$ 4 billion.
This type of failure reinforced the perception that building before actual demand can go wrong when urban, business, and population growth does not keep pace with infrastructure. This is precisely why Chinese proactive planning is seen at the same time as strategic boldness and high risk.
What China is trying to balance going forward
After examples of excess and stagnation, the National Development and Reform Commission itself began to advocate for stricter criteria to approve new projects. The proposal is to require a more complete analysis of each city’s economic and fiscal situation before approving new works.
This means that China has not abandoned the idea of building first, but is now trying to be more selective. The goal is to prevent the subway from being treated as an automatic solution for any city, without considering financial capacity, potential demand, and real urbanization prospects.
Why Caojiawan remains such a powerful case
Caojiawan became a strong example because it synthesizes the promise and controversy of the Chinese model. For years, the station seemed like a classic planning error, a symbol of excessive public works in an empty location. Later, it became proof that infrastructure can anticipate the city and attract development.
This shift in perception explains why the case resonated so much. It shows that, in China, projects deemed absurd in the present can be defended as a strategic investment in the future, provided they manage to attract residents, businesses, commerce, and new urban functions.
What this strategy reveals about Chinese urban planning
The central lesson from the base is that China does not build merely to serve the current city. It builds to shape the city it expects to have in the future. This anticipatory planning helps explain the speed with which new urban areas emerge, appreciate in value, and gain density.
But the same strategy comes at a high price. When it works, it produces urban hubs, real estate value, and economic expansion. When it fails, it leaves debt, empty stations, and assets difficult to amortize. It is precisely this combination of ambition, risk, and long-term vision that makes the Chinese model as impressive as it is controversial.
In your view, is building a subway before the city a sign of intelligent planning or too high a risk of spending billions before real demand exists?
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