Defying US sanctions, Brazil expands trade with Putin's Russia in risky bet in the Global South

Brazil expands trade with Russia amid the War. Understand how the relationship between Russia and Brazil can be risky, despite benefiting the country.

While the United States and Europe lead a coalition to boycott Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, the Federal government of Brazil expanded trade with Vladimir Putin's Russia in 2023, in the midst of the War. For the first time since the relationship ascended to the status of a strategic partnership 20 years ago, commercial exchanges exceeded the target of US$10 billion, reaching US$11,3 billion over the last year.

Trade between Russia and Brazil grew by 6.000%

The movement, according to analysts, reflects the Lula government's bet on the “Global South”, which is risky. This “Global South”, the focus of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's foreign policy, has resisted the call of Kiev and allies to isolate Moscow.

In this way, it emerged as an alternative route for Vladimir Putin to circumvent sanctions, while the country benefits from cheaper fuels from Russia. O Brazil, for example, became the largest buyer of Russian diesel, with 6 million tons imported in 2023 (Data from the Capital Charter). This represents a 6.000% increase over the previous year and a total of $4,5 billion.

Next we have fertilizers, which correspond to another large share of trade with Russia and totaled US$3,9 billion in the year, according to data from the Trading Economics monitor. Brazil expands trade with Russia since, historically, the country is opposed to unilateral sanctions and only considers embargoes validated by the UN, which would not happen in this case because Russia has the power to veto any punishment it could suffer.

According to the professor of International Relations at FGV, Pedro Brites, there is a pragmatic aspect that is predominant, of importing petroleum derivatives, especially diesel, from a relevant producer under favorable conditions to stabilize prices domestically.

Putin evaluates Lula's invitation to establish partnerships between Russia and Brazil

According to Brites, there is also the political aspect. Condemnation of Russia for the war in Ukraine is very strong among countries in the Global North, but it has not spread as effectively in Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East. There is a divide over how to deal with Russia. And here we have the Lula government trying to get closer to these countries in the Global South, which politically favor Russia.

In their comings and goings over the conflict, the Brazilian president was criticized for equating the responsibilities that Ukraine (invaded country) and Russia (invading country) would have called for war by saying that “when one doesn't want to, two don't fight”.

Squid also suggested that Putin could come to Brazil without fear of being detained, despite being the target of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC). To pave the way, the government attests to the thesis of immunity for heads of state to receive it in November, at the G-20 Summit.

Understand how the rapprochement between Russia and Brazil is seen by the USA

As Brazil expands trade with Russia, Lula tried to present himself as a mediator in the conflict, but gave the impression of alignment with Moscow to Kiev and its allies in the West. An example of this was when the The White House accused the president of “parroting Russian propaganda” when saying that the US and Europe prolonged the war, a reference to the supply of weapons to Ukrainian troops.

According to analyst Daniel Buarque, with the sanctions, Russia has a limited number of countries with which it can do business. This makes Russia more committed to expanding its business and ends up favoring commercial relations with countries that are open. Lula benefited from this, expanding agreements between Russia and Brazil.