Portuguese 
Spanish 
Federal bulletin released in June indicates that El Niño is expected to remain until early 2027, with a probability greater than 90%. The forecast points to intensification between spring and summer, above-average rainfall in the South, heat in the country, and greater attention to storms, floods, inundations, and landslides in cities.
El Niño is expected to continue influencing the Brazilian climate until at least early 2027, with a probability greater than 90% of persistence. The alert appears in the first official bulletin on the phenomenon, released on June 29 by federal government agencies and reported by NSC Total on July 1, 2026.
The document indicates a high chance of the phenomenon reaching a very strong category between the spring and summer of 2026, when the sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Pacific exceeds 2°C above average. In southern Brazil, the forecast emphasizes attention to above-average rainfall, storms, inundations, floods, and landslides.
Federal bulletin brings together various monitoring agencies
The alert about El Niño was prepared jointly by the National Institute of Meteorology, National Institute for Space Research, National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency, National Center for Monitoring and Alerting Natural Disasters, Geological Service of Brazil, and the National Secretariat for Protection and Civil Defense.
-
NASA Prepares Trio of Small Satellites to Track Tropical Storms and Capture Rapid Rainfall Development from Above the Clouds
-
$7,999 Isaac 1 Robot Aims to Tackle Household Chaos: Folds Clothes, Makes Beds, and Organizes, but Raises Privacy and Cost Concerns with Camera Reliance and Remote Human Assistance
-
Mobile Electron Accelerator Units Enable Safe Testing of Water, Materials, and Industrial Waste Treatment in Countries Without Permanent Labs
-
Brazil Invests $12 Million in Biodiversity to Develop Drug Molecules, but When Will It Reduce Dependence on Imported Pharmaceutical Ingredients?
This composition is relevant because the phenomenon does not only affect weather forecasts. It influences agriculture, water resources, civil defense, disaster risk, temperature, rainfall, and municipal planning, especially in regions most exposed to extremes.
Phenomenon was confirmed after warming in the Pacific
In June, federal agencies confirmed the configuration of El Niño after the warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean waters. This warming alters atmospheric circulation patterns and interferes with the distribution of rainfall in different parts of Brazil.
The bulletin also points out that forecasts from international meteorological centers indicate continuity and intensification in the coming months. The concern is not only about the presence of the phenomenon but also about the possibility of it gaining strength quickly until spring.
Chance of permanence exceeds 90%
The probability of over 90% of permanence until the beginning of 2027 places El Niño at the center of climate planning for the coming months. The forecast indicates that the phenomenon may extend through 2026, still influencing rain and temperature in the country.
The projection from the APEC Climate Center, South Korea, cited by NSC Total, indicates a 100% probability of maintaining El Niño in the July to September quarter and a 99.4% chance of a strong intensity episode occurring.
Warming above 2°C indicates a very strong event
The bulletin considers the possibility of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific above 2°C. Although the term “super El Niño” is popularly used, the highlighted technical classification is of a very strong event.
The mentioned scale divides the phenomenon into weak, moderate, strong, and very strong. Above 2°C, El Niño reaches a high and less common level, with a greater potential to reorganize rain and temperature patterns in various regions.
South should have above-average rainfall
For the quarter between July and September, the climate forecast indicates above-average rainfall in most of the Southern Region. This is one of the most sensitive points of the alert, because excessive precipitation can turn into urban and rural disruptions.
In the first year of El Niño, spring and summer tend to be rainier seasons in the South. Therefore, the risk is not limited to an isolated episode: attention needs to follow the evolution of the phenomenon over the coming months.
Santa Catarina appears in a state of preparation
In Santa Catarina, the trend is for above-average rainfall in the coming months, with accumulations gradually increasing between July and September. The forecast from the Santa Catarina Climate Forum indicates more frequent passages of cold fronts and other systems that favor precipitation.
The state government signed the Climate Alert Decree on May 18 to anticipate preventive measures for the phenomenon. The measure seeks to reduce bureaucracy and allow the state and municipalities to act before the arrival of heavy rains.
Storms and landslides are on the radar
The combination of El Niño and typical winter systems may favor storms, heatwaves, and shorter cold episodes. In urban areas, the risk increases when intense rain meets saturated soil, limited drainage, and hillside occupations.
Flooding, inundations, and landslides are the most cited impacts for Santa Catarina in the context of intense rain. Monitoring becomes essential because the problem does not depend only on the volume of rain but also on the duration, location, and vulnerability of the terrain.
Heat also concerns a large part of the country
El Niño does not only mean excess rain in the South. The bulletin also predicts above-average temperatures in most of Brazil, increasing the potential for heatwaves and favoring the risk of wildfires in areas of the Midwest, North, and Northeast.
The forecast indicates below-average rainfall in much of the central-northern part of the country, especially in areas of the Northeast and the North and Midwest regions. The same phenomenon can, therefore, increase rain in one region and worsen heat and drought in others.
Field will have different effects by region
In the agricultural sector, the effects vary according to location and type of crop. The scenario may favor the harvest of second-crop corn, cotton, and sugarcane in the Midwest, as well as benefit winter crops in the South.
At the same time, higher temperatures may harm pastures, reduce soil moisture, and affect the preparation of the next crop in some areas. The impact of El Niño in the field is not uniform: it depends on the agricultural calendar, soil, crop, and water availability.
Monitoring in Santa Catarina has been reinforced
Santa Catarina operates a network of 172 hydrometeorological stations with data updated every 15 seconds, in addition to four meteorological radars distributed throughout the territory and a team of meteorologists on a permanent scale.
This structure helps to monitor rain, rivers, and atmospheric conditions in near real-time. In a strong El Niño scenario, alert systems and quick responses become as important as seasonal forecasting.
Understanding the phenomenon avoids simplistic reading
The El Niño occurs when there is abnormal warming of the surface of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, near the area close to South America. This warming interferes with wind circulation and alters cloud and rain formation.
In the South of Brazil, this change can cause cold fronts to remain concentrated in the region for longer, increasing the chance of persistent rain. In other areas, the pattern may favor heat, precipitation deficit, and increased risk of wildfires.
El Niño requires planning before heavy rain
The federal alert shows that El Niño should be treated as a planning factor for civil defense, agriculture, cities, and families in risk areas. The forecast of its persistence until 2027 and the chance of a very strong event make preparation more urgent.
The challenge is to turn weather bulletins into concrete actions before the storms. Do you live in a region that usually suffers from heavy rain during El Niño? Do you think Brazilian cities are prepared for floods, inundations, and landslides? Leave your opinion in the comments.
